李克強在中國工會第十六次全國代表大會上的經濟形勢報告（全文）
Li Keqiang's report on the economic situation at the 16th National Congress of ACFTU

: 0 Comment(s)打印 E-mail China.org.cn　 2013-11-13

調整字號大小:

編者按：10月21日，中共中央政治局常委、國務院總理李克強應邀在中國工會第十六次全國代表大會上作了經濟形勢報告。報告深刻分析和闡述了我國的經濟形勢，闡釋了我國經濟中長期發(fā)展趨勢。基于個人在經濟學方面的研究與分析，李克強用平實直白的語言，深入淺出地將中國的宏觀經濟娓娓道來，其中不乏形象生動的比喻和風趣的表達。以下是報告全文：	Editor's note: On October 21, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang delivered a report at the 16th National Congress of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU). In his report, Li expressed his concerns about China's economy and mid to long term trends. He spoke about China's macro-economy, based on his research and analysis, using simple language and anecdotes. The full text of the report is as follows:
同志們，首先我代表黨中央、國務院，向中國工會十六大的成功召開和選出新一屆領導機構表示熱烈祝賀，向我國億萬職工和廣大工會干部致以誠摯問候，向中國工人階級表示崇高敬意！我國工人階級是發(fā)展的主力軍，大家對經濟形勢、走勢都很關心，應大會邀請，我今天主要講三個問題。	Comrades, first of all, on behalf of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the State Council, I would like to offer congratulations on the opening of the 16th National Congress of the All-China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU), in which the new leaders were elected. I offer my regards to the millions of employees and the officials working in the trade unions and my highest respect to the workers of China, who are the major force behind China's development. At the request of the conference, I would like to take this opportunity today to talk about three major issues, as you are all very concerned about China's economic situation.
一、關于我國經濟發(fā)展形勢	First, China's economic development trend
如何看待當前經濟形勢，需要放在國際經濟大環(huán)境中來透視。新一屆政府成立以來，我們面臨著錯綜復雜的國內外形勢。突出特點是世界經濟復蘇乏力，主要發(fā)達經濟體增長低迷，好的增長1%多一點，差一些的就負增長了；發(fā)展中國家和新興經濟體中體量比較大的幾個，增速普遍不超過2%，個別好的也不超過5%。2010年，我們的經濟增長是兩位數，達到10.4%，但到去年四季度，因為國際國內多重復雜因素交織影響，經濟增長率只有7.8%，今年繼續(xù)下行，一季度是7.7%，二季度是7.5%。我為什么上來要跟大家講GDP呢？同志們可能會問，說我們不能片面強調GDP。這個話說得不錯，但我們畢竟是發(fā)展中國家，發(fā)展還是我國解決一切問題的基礎和關鍵。更重要的是，我們關注GDP，其實關注的是就業(yè)。過去，我國GDP每增長1個百分點，就會拉動大約100萬人就業(yè)。經過這幾年經濟結構的調整，尤其是隨著服務業(yè)的加快發(fā)展，目前大概GDP增長1個百分點，能夠拉動130萬、甚至150萬人就業(yè)。我請人力資源和社會保障部和有關方面反復測算，都認為要保證新增就業(yè)1000萬人、城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率在4%左右，需要7.2%的經濟增長。我們之所以要穩(wěn)增長，說到底就是為了保就業(yè)。	The current economic situation should be viewed as part of the global economic environment. Since the newly elected government took office, we have encountered a complicated environment both in China and abroad. The world economy is sluggish, growth in developed economies declining, it is at best only around 1 percent and at worst there is negative growth. Several of the largest developing and emerging economies have grown no more than 2 percent, with only a few hitting nearly 5 percent. In 2010, we obtained two-digit growth, reaching 10.4 percent. However, in the fourth quarter of last year, because of multiple complexities, growth decreased to 7.8 percent, and it continued to fall to 7.7 percent in the first quarter this year, and 7.5 percent in the second quarter. Why am I talking about Gross Domestic Product (GDP) first? You will probably say we should not focus single-mindedly on GDP. This is true. But we are still a developing country and development is the key and the basis for us to solve all our problems. More importantly, when we focus on GDP, we are actually focusing on employment. We once increased employment by 1 million people for every percent of GDP growth. Due to the economic restructuring in the past few years and the accelerated development of tertiary industry, every one percent of GDP growth has created 1.3 million to 1.5 million job opportunities. The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security and relevant departments calculated the statistics more than once, on my request. They said that if we are to ensure that 10 million job vacancies are created and registered unemployment remains at about 4 percent in cities and towns, we need about 7.2 percent GDP growth. We need stable growth in order to create employment.
面對經濟下行的壓力，怎么辦？要穩(wěn)增長、保就業(yè)，我們有兩種選擇。一種選擇是擴大財政赤字，增加貨幣供應量。通過打赤字、發(fā)票子來帶動投資，這樣做，雖然當年可能能見效，但需要財政、貨幣政策有相應的運作空間，更重要的是這種短期刺激政策難以持續(xù)。因為我們的赤字率已經達到2.1%了。這是什么概念呢？歐盟定了一個標準，就是赤字不能超過GDP的3%，當然后來很多成員國沒有遵守，超過了。結果大家都知道，出現了歐債危機，從前幾年一直持續(xù)到現在，一些國家經濟增長無力甚至下降、失業(yè)率大增，原有的福利也無法保障。就貨幣來說，我們的廣義貨幣供應量M2的余額3月末超過了100萬億元，已經是GDP的兩倍了。換句話說，就是“池子”里的貨幣已經很多了，再多發(fā)票子就有可能導致通貨膨脹。大家都知道，惡性通貨膨脹，不僅干擾或者說破壞市場，而且會給人民生活帶來巨大的副作用和壓力，甚至造成人心惶惶。	How, then, should we deal with the declining economy? We have two options to maintain economic growth and sustainable employment. One is to increase the fiscal deficit and expand the money supply. This might be effective in a particular year, but fiscal and monetary policies need to work together. Short term stimulus policies cannot be sustained. Our deficits have already reached 2.1 percent. What does that mean? Look at the European Union. It passed regulation to prevent deficits from exceeding 3 percent of GDP. However, many countries did not conform to the rule and their deficits went above the warning line. You all know the consequence: the European debt crisis broke out and has lasted for several years. The economies in some countries have been in continuous decline. Unemployment is growing and the welfare is often not fulfilled. In terms of currency, the outstanding broad money supply (M2) in our country by the end of this March has exceeded 100 trillion yuan, twice as much as our GDP. In other words, there is enough money in the pool. Had it increased any more, inflation would probably also have increased. You all know that hyper-inflation would not only destroy the market, but also have huge negative impact, put pressure on people's lives, and even cause a panic among people.
第二種選擇，就是堅持不擴大赤字，既不放松也不收緊銀根。這就需要我們保持定力、穩(wěn)定政策。那么有的同志可能會說，這樣做是不是不作為了，只要站住不動就行了？那不行，你要不動，就像騎自行車一樣，停在那里晃兩圈兒，沒準兒就摔下來了。所以還得動，要穩(wěn)中求進，這是中央確定的工作總基調。還必須穩(wěn)中有為。怎樣穩(wěn)中有為？那就要創(chuàng)新宏觀調控思路和方式，根據形勢變化，采取有效的、有針對性的措施。我們重點做了這幾個方面工作。	The second option is to carry on without expanding the deficit and neither loosen or tighten monetary policy. This requires us to maintain sustainable policies. Some of you will say, does this mean doing nothing and just standing where we are? We can't do that. If you don't move ahead, you will be like a cyclist. If he stops, he will sway several times and may fall off. So we have to move ahead, to move forward while maintaining stability, and that is the fundamental point that has been made by the central government. How can we move ahead while maintaining stability? We need to be innovative in our macroeconomic control, taking effective and focused measures according to the changing situation. To do this, we have focused on the following areas:
第一，深處著力。努力釋放改革的巨大紅利。同志們還記得，從十八屆二中全會到今年全國兩會，我們提出簡政放權，既要精簡機構，更要轉變政府職能，這里面大有文章可做。大家都知道，有所謂“兩只手”，看不見的是市場的手，看得見的手是政府的手。社會上有人說，政府“看得見的手”變成了“閑不住的手”，干什么事都要去報批。你們可能從電視上看過，有人曾經畫了一張叫做審批的“萬里長征圖”，多的時候要蓋一百多個章才能辦成一件事，再加上各種檢查收費，創(chuàng)業(yè)者不堪重負。有一位部長告訴我，說他接到一個投訴信，一個在北京讀書的大學生，畢業(yè)以后回家，到中部地區(qū)的一個小縣城，他想自主創(chuàng)業(yè)。干什么呢？他覺得這個縣城里面要增加點文化氛圍，就想辦一個書店，從父母和親屬那里借了20多萬元，結果跑了三、四個月，蓋了幾十個公章，總算跑下來。好不容易租了店鋪，然后就開始被檢查了。有的執(zhí)法人員進去看，說你這個店玻璃顏色不對，照到街面上光污染，你得改。要辦書店的年輕人說我已經沒錢了，執(zhí)法人員說沒錢也行，給書吧，就摸了幾十本書走了。那他書里是不是有什么“打黃掃非”方面的問題呀？沒有。實際上，人家辦的是一個社科書店，主要是教材，還真沒這方面問題。到最后，這個大學生實在是經不起檢查，只好“關門大吉”。我說經不起檢查，不是書經不起檢查，而是經不起各種人員的反復檢查。他一氣之下給部長寫了封投訴信，部里派人下去查，還果真如此。大家想想看，我們在盡力為各地城鎮(zhèn)新增就業(yè)、創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)造條件，而各種審批、檢查顯然把人民群眾這種創(chuàng)業(yè)的熱情給抑制了。所以我們下決心減少行政審批，這半年多來，中央政府下大氣力已經取消和下放221項審批事項。簡政放權的政策，向社會、向市場釋放了一個非常積極的信號，就是鼓勵大家就業(yè)創(chuàng)業(yè)。前兩天我要了工商登記機關的數據，今年第三季度，全國新設市場主體同比增長了18%，其中民營企業(yè)數量增長了31%，和前些年相比較，呈現一種迸發(fā)式的增長，改革的成效是明顯的。所以我們把轉變政府職能作為改革的突破口。建立中國（上海）自由貿易試驗區(qū)，其中重要方面也是簡政放權，探索負面清單管理模式，政府放開該放的、管住該管的。	Firstly, we have struck deep and have endeavored to release huge dividends from reform. Comrades, you may still remember, from the Second Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee (Feb. 26) to the National People's Congress (Mar. 5-17) and Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (Mar. 3-12) held this year, we have put forward simplifying governance and decentralizing power. This means both downsizing the government and transforming its functions – and there is huge potential in both areas. As you know, there are the so-called "two hands" – the invisible hand is the market and the visible one is the government. Some people say that the government's "visible hand" has become a "restless hand," because all business has to be approved. You may have seen on the television that someone drew a "Long March Map" of administrative processes, saying that it can take more than 100 official seals to approve a business. On top of that, various inspections and fees have overwhelmed start-up businessmen. One minister told me that he once got a complaint letter, saying that a young man, after he graduated from university in Beijing and returned home, wanted to start his own business in a county town in central China. Considering the various proposals, he chose to open a bookstore in a bid to improve the cultural atmosphere of the county. After borrowing more than 20,000 yuan from his parents and relatives, he spent three or four months getting dozens of papers stamped with official seals, which was necessary to get the license. Not long after he rented a place, inspectors came. A batch of law enforcement officers went in, and said the shop's window glass was the wrong color, as the reflection would cause "light pollution" in the street, and told him to fix it. The young man replied saying he was out of money. The law enforcement officers then offered to take books instead of money, and went away with dozens of books. Did the books contain any adult or illegal content? No. In fact, his was a social science bookstore. Most of his stock was textbooks and he had no problems in this area. Eventually, the graduate could not afford the inspections and chose to close down the store. In my opinion, it was not that his books could not pass the inspections, but that he could not afford to have the inspectors come so frequently. Feeling aggrieved, he wrote a complaint letter, and the ministry sent people to investigate the matter and found that his complaints were true. Think about it. While we are doing our best to create new jobs and facilitate entrepreneurship, numerous approval procedures and inspections are destroying people's enthusiasm for starting their own business. This is why we are determined to simply administrative approval processes. Over the past six months, the central government has put in a huge effort in abolishing or decentralizing 221 administrative approval processes. Simplifying governance and decentralizing power has sent a positive signal to society and the market, which will encourage people to obtain employment or start their own businesses. The other day I checked the business registration authority's data. In the third quarter of this year, the number of new market players increased by 18 percent year-on-year, and private business went up by 31 percent. This is explosive growth compared with previous years, showing that the reform has had a remarkable effect. In light of this, we have taken transforming the government's functions as an entry point for reform. The China (Shanghai) Free Trade Pilot Zone were established with one vital aim for simplifying governance, decentralizing power and exploring a new approach in negative list management. The government should let go of what should be let go and control what should be controlled.
當然，改革不光是要轉變政府職能，我們得想更多辦法。因為經濟發(fā)展總是需要財力的，在財政增收困難的情況下，我們就想辦法盤活存量。怎么把存量盤活？我們提出來，要讓人民過好日子，政府就要過緊日子。中央有“八項規(guī)定”，政府明確提出“約法三章”，要從“三公”經費上“開刀”。今年從中央機關開始做，行政經費砍了5%。這樣就騰出來一些錢，干什么？其中一項是給小微企業(yè)減稅，2萬元以下小微企業(yè)增值稅、營業(yè)稅免了。涉及到多少人呢？涉及到600萬戶、上千萬就業(yè)人員。	Of course, reform means more than transforming government functions. We have to come up with more solutions. As economic development always requires the financing to support it, in times of difficulty, we have to liquidize existing assets. How do we do this? We agree that the government should carry out an austerity plan if we want people to live a comfortable life. The CPC's central authorities have put forward the "eight rules" on frugality, while the government has also drawn up the "three agreements," to cut public expenditures. Central government agencies took the lead and took a 5 percent cut in their administrative expenses. In this way, we have freed up some money. One part of the savings is being used to fund micro and small businesses by giving them tax cuts. Businesses whose revenue is under 20 thousand yuan are exempt from value-added tax and business tax. This involves 6 million businesses with up to 10 million people.
同時，我們還改革投資體制。這次機構改革，把鐵道部撤銷了，改成了鐵路總公司。鐵路職工200多萬人，為國家、為人民、為乘客做出的貢獻是巨大的、不可替代的。但是，由于原來的鐵道部是政府組成部門，政企不分，實際上導致融資困難，只能靠財政給錢，靠國家信用去發(fā)債，結果這兩年鐵路建設步伐在放慢。那怎么辦？我們國家到現在鐵路運營總里程只有10萬公里，美國是25-27萬公里，如果跟發(fā)達國家相比，我們的人均鐵路里程很少。應該說，鐵路發(fā)展特別是中西部地區(qū)鐵路發(fā)展，還有很大的潛力，所以我們下決心把鐵道部變成鐵路總公司，既實現了政企分開，也使鐵路作為企業(yè)可以在更大范圍內融資，讓社會資本進入。當然要保證鐵路的運行安全、國家的安全。修鐵路是有回報的，有很多社會資本愿意進來，要搭建平臺、創(chuàng)造條件，加速鐵路在薄弱地區(qū)的發(fā)展。	At the same time, we have reformed the investment system. During this round of institutional reform, we dissolved the Ministry of Railways, changing it to China Railway Corporation. More than two million people worked on the railways. Their contributions to the country and people are so big they are not replaceable. But as the former Ministry of Railways was a government agency with no clear distinction between the functions of the government and enterprises, it had financing difficulties. It had to rely on state financing and the country's sovereign credit to issue bonds – resulting in a slowdown in railway development in recent years. So what should we do? China's railway mileage is only 100,000 km; by contrast, the United States has 250,000-270,000 km. Our railway mileage per capita is also meager compared with developed countries. It is fairly to say there is still great potential for railway development in China, especially in the central and western regions. This is why we were determined to transform the Ministry of Railways into China Railway Corporation. This has separated the functions of the government and enterprises, and enabled railway authorities to gain finance on a larger scale, effectively letting social capital in. Certainly we have to ensure the safety of railways and that of the country. For the returns on building railways, there is a lot of social capital willing to join in the ventures. We need to build a platform and create the conditions to speed up railway development in less developed regions.
但是，同志們，按照第二種選擇來做，也不是說沒有壓力。在座的大家可能也聽說過有所謂的“錢荒”，這就是6月份的時候，銀行間的隔夜拆借率曾一下到了13%，那是高得不得了，平常也就是3%多一點。所以當時外界有說法，“中國銀行間出現了債務違約、頭寸緊張”，這就是所謂“錢荒”。面對這種形勢，我們沒有心慌，還是堅持這條：既不放松也不收緊銀根。但是，坦率地講，我們心不慌，但也不能不注意。為什么呢？我給大家舉個例子。現在網絡很發(fā)達，有人就把“中國銀行間發(fā)生資金違約”改了一下，把“間”字劃掉了，變成了“中國銀行發(fā)生資金違約”，并發(fā)到網上。大家知道，中國銀行是四大國有商業(yè)銀行之一，而且是我們在全世界布點最多的銀行，同時因為時差的原因，我們這邊閉市的時候人家那邊開市。這一下就議論開了，說“中國金融是不是出問題了”。我們迅速反應，向外界澄清事實。大家要看到，這么點小火星，搞不好就能燃起大火。針對當時的情況，我們一方面要求人民銀行和商業(yè)銀行加強流動性管理，保持適度的貨幣供應，另一方面并未因此而放松銀根，而是合理引導社會預期和企業(yè)行為，產生了穩(wěn)增長效應。如果當時我們放松銀根，如果我們多發(fā)赤字，那就像古人講的“抱薪救火”。薪不盡，火不滅，抱著柴火去救火，柴火不用完，火是滅不了的。所以，我們選擇堅持穩(wěn)住財政和貨幣政策。	But, comrades, this doesn't mean that there will be no pressure if we go with the second option. You may have heard about the so-called "money squeeze" in June. The inter-bank lending rate surged to 13 percent overnight, a remarkable figure bearing in mind that the usual rate is just over 3 percent. At that time, people outside China said that there were "debt defaults and a shortage of cash in the Chinese inter-bank loan system." This was the so-called "money squeeze." Facing this situation, we were not flustered. We neither loosed nor tightened our monetary policy. Yet, frankly, even if we did not get flustered, we had to pay attention to the issue. Why? Let me give you an example. Our communications network is now very developed. Someone just deleted the word "inter" and changed the whole meaning of the sentence "defaults occurred in the Chinese inter-bank market" to "defaults occurred in the Chinese banking market" and spread it online. We all know that the Bank of China is one of the four state-owned commercial banks with the most subsidiaries in the world. As they are in different time zones, banks in China are closed while those on the other side of the world are open. That immediately triggered discussion. "Are there problems in the Chinese financial system?" We responded rapidly by clarifying the facts to the outside world. We need to realize that a single spark can start a major fire. Taking into consideration the overall situation, we asked the People's Bank of China and commercial banks to strengthen their liquidity management and maintained a moderate money supply. In addition, instead of loosening monetary policy, we rationally guided social expectations and enterprise behavior to prompt steady growth. If we had loosened monetary policy or if we had increased the deficit, we could have been accused of the ancient phrase "carrying firewood to put out a fire," -- adopting a wrong measure to save a desperate situation, only to make it worse. Therefore, we have chosen to stick to a steady fiscal and monetary policy.
第二，精準發(fā)力。推動經濟發(fā)展，不光是穩(wěn)住政策、推進改革、激發(fā)市場活力，還要加大結構調整的力度，其中很重要的就是擴大內需。我們出臺了一系列刺激居民消費的政策措施，最近就要發(fā)4G牌照。現在信息消費、電子商務等發(fā)展很快，2012年網絡零售交易規(guī)模1.3萬億元，今年前三季度交易額已接近去年全年水平，帶動了很多人就業(yè)。有很多人搞網絡銷售，就等于是自己開了個小店，而且不用租商鋪，成本很低。創(chuàng)業(yè)確實是不容易的，但是通過提供各種便利和發(fā)展新的商業(yè)業(yè)態(tài)，可以提供更多創(chuàng)業(yè)機會。同時，我們還大力發(fā)展養(yǎng)老和健康服務業(yè)。這方面我們是短缺的。現在說不少產品過剩，要采取措施消化過剩產能，而服務卻是相對短缺的。中國的服務業(yè)和國外相比差距還很大，就是和與我們同等收入水平的國家相比，服務業(yè)占GDP的比重大概也差了10個百分點。據了解，在一些特大城市，要進公立養(yǎng)老院，如果今年50歲開始排隊，要排上30年，甚至40年，那就得至少等到80多歲了，這說明養(yǎng)老服務供給很不夠。我國人均GDP現在6000多美元，服務業(yè)發(fā)展的潛力還是很大的，要采取措施加以推動，特別是要破除障礙，吸收社會資本進入。同時要看到，制造業(yè)是不能丟的。我們重點加強節(jié)能環(huán)保這些符合結構升級方向的產業(yè)。我們還加大城市棚戶區(qū)的改造力度，這是惠及民生的項目，其實也是拉動增長的項目。這些年來我們加快了棚戶區(qū)改造，取得很大成效。但即便如此，現在我國集中連片的各類棚戶區(qū)、包括城市、工礦以及獨立工礦區(qū)、林區(qū)、墾區(qū)棚戶區(qū)，還居住著大約4000萬人，其中70%是退休職工。前不久我到西部地區(qū)一個工礦區(qū)的棚戶區(qū)看望職工，碰到一個老職工。我問他，你什么時候來的？他說五六十年代，支援三線建設來的。當時先生產后生活，住的就是個棚子，付出了青春，干了一輩子，結果到老了、退休了，還住在棚戶區(qū)里面。冬天北方地區(qū)煤爐不敢多燒，害怕中毒，晚上不光是蓋著棉被，還要穿著棉大衣才能睡覺，幾百人合用一個廁所。他跟我說，我現在就一點愿望，能不能我在世的時候住上樓房。所以我們要加快棚戶區(qū)改造。推進結構調整，實際上也是要縮小東中西部地區(qū)差距，縮小城鄉(xiāng)之間的差距和破解城市內部二元差距。	Secondly, we must be accurate in exercising our strength. Promoting economic development not only requires us to stabilize policy, promote reform and energize the market, but also to strengthen structural adjustment, a key part of which is to expand domestic demand. We have introduced a series of policies and measures to stimulate consumption. We will be issuing 4G licenses shortly. Information consumption and e-commerce are developing rapidly. Online retail trade reached 1.3 trillion yuan in 2012, while the figure in the first three quarters of this year has already approached last year's total, which has boosted employment. Many people work in online sales. They run a small shop themselves, with no rent and low costs. Entrepreneurship is not easy, but by making things convenient and developing new business formats, we can create more opportunities for entrepreneurship. At the same time, we are taking a great effort to develop pension and health services. We are lacking in this area. We have a large surplus of products and we must take measures to absorb this excess capacity. We are short on services. There is large disparity between China's service industry and those in foreign countries. Even compared with countries at the same income level, we are still behind by about 10 percent in terms of our service industry's contribution to GDP. Apparently, in some large cities, if people start to apply for a space in a state-owned nursing home at the age of 50, they will have to wait for 30 or even 40 years. By that time you are more than 80 years old. This shows the serious lack of supply. China's per capita GDP is now more than US$6,000. Our service industry has great potential for development. We should take measures to encourage this, breaking down barriers and absorbing more social capital. At the same time, we cannot abandon the manufacturing sector. While focusing on strengthening energy-saving and environmentally friendly industries through structural upgrading, we must also quicken our conversion of shanty towns. This will benefit the people's livelihoods, and promoting economic growth. In recent years, we have transformed shanty towns and made great progress. But even so, there are still about 40 million people nationwide living in shanty towns, including those in urban, industrial and mining, forest, and land reclamation areas. 70 percent of shanty town residents are retired workers. Not long ago, I visited workers living in a mining shanty town in Western China and talked to an old retired worker. I asked him when he had moved there. He told me that in the 1950s-1960s, he joined the "Third Front" program. He said that in those days, production came first and living conditions came second. He had worked hard all his life, but still had to live in a shanty town when he retired. Out of fear of carbon monoxide poisoning, his family didn't burn much coal in the stove in winter. When they went to sleep at night, they not only had to cover themselves with quilts, but also keep their daytime clothes on. Several hundred people shared one bathroom. The old man hoped he could move into a proper building. This is why we must speed up our conversion of shanty towns. Encouraging structural adjustment will narrow the gap between east, central and western China, and the urban-rural gap, and the dual system within cities.
第三，擴大開放。中國經過多年的努力，已經成長為世界第二大經濟體，應該說這其中我國出口競爭力不斷提高功不可沒。大家許多人都出過國，到處都能看到“中國制造”。但是當前由于整個世界經濟不景氣，世貿組織不斷調減世界貿易總量和增幅的預測，貿易戰(zhàn)也有點風起云涌之勢，各國都是為了保護本國的產業(yè)和就業(yè)。但實際上這個保護是保護落后，最終也是保護不住的。中國作為一個大國，主要還是要依靠內需，但是穩(wěn)定出口也不可輕視，因為我們現在出口帶動的直接就業(yè)人數大概3000萬人，加上相關的配套產業(yè)，帶動大概1億人，如果出口迅速掉下來，就會產生就業(yè)問題。所以我們還是要有理有節(jié)地開展對外交往，維護國家利益，堅決反對貿易保護主義。大家可能還記得，今年四五月份曾經出現的中歐光伏案，就是歐盟要對中國的光伏產品搞所謂的“雙反”。我到歐洲訪問時，一路跟他們講，這樣做是損人不利已，而且如果歐盟真的對中國光伏產品實施所謂的“雙反”，加47%的懲罰性關稅，那么我們的光伏企業(yè)在歐洲市場就要全部退出了，我說中國必將采取反制措施。回來以后，我到國內一個最大的光伏企業(yè)去調查，企業(yè)說，雖然有兩個月的談判緩沖期，但如果兩個月后關稅水平上升到那么高的話，企業(yè)就撐不住了。光伏產業(yè)涉及到多少人呢？涉及到40萬人就業(yè)。而且還不僅僅是40萬人就業(yè)的問題，這個口子要開了，那一些國家就會沒完沒了，很多貿易戰(zhàn)就會打起來，針對著中國搞制裁。中國的出口總量已經世界第一，我們必須高舉反對貿易保護主義的旗，堅決反對“雙反”等措施。所以我就在北京跟歐盟的領導人通話，進一步做工作，最終中歐協(xié)商解決。	Thirdly, we must open more to the outside world. After years of efforts, China has become the world's second largest economy. The fact that our export industry has become increasingly competitive has played an undeniable part in this. Many Chinese have been abroad, and we can see products labeled "made-in-China" everywhere. However, due to the sluggish global economy, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has continued to reduce its world trade volume and growth forecasts. A trade war has emerged. Every country is to trying to protect its own industries and job market. But this protection is protection of backwardness, which is something that cannot be protected. As a large country, China mainly relies on domestic demand, but exports should also be kept stable, because about 30 million people are employed directly in the export industry, and about 100 million people in related support industries. A rapid drop in exports would cause problems in employment, therefore we should carry out reasonable foreign exchange, safeguard our national interests and oppose trade protectionism. You probably still remember the China-Europe photovoltaic case that emerged in April and May this year. The European Union attempted to conduct a so-called "double reverse investigation" of China's photovoltaic products. During my tour of European countries, I repeatedly said this would harm others and not benefit the EU. Besides, if the EU really carried out the investigation and imposed an additional 47 percent punitive tariff, our photovoltaic companies would have to withdraw completely from the European market. Therefore I said that, China would take countermeasures. After I returned to China, I went to visit the biggest domestic photovoltaic company. I was told that although there was a two-month mitigation period for negotiations, the company would not be able to survive for more than two months if the tariff were imposed. How many people are involved in the photovoltaic industry? More than 400,000. It is not just an employment problem for 400,000 people. Once we set such a precedent, those countries would never stop. Many trade wars will break out aiming at taking sanctions against China. China is number one in the world in terms of export volume. We must hold high the banner of opposing trade protectionism, and oppose the "double-reverse investigation" and other measures. For this reason, I spoke to the EU leaders from Beijing, negotiated with them and solved the problem through consultation.
這次我到泰國訪問，我也向他們極力推薦中國的高鐵，介紹中國的高鐵技術先進、安全可靠、運營有經驗。我們的企業(yè)走出去，不僅僅是買人家的東西，也要讓人家買我們有價值的東西，不僅僅是買中國的服裝鞋帽、買一般加工品，也要買我們的制成品特別是中高端的制成品。這方面還是有很大空間可以去做的。	During my recent visit to Thailand, I talked about China's high-speed railway, in particular its leading technology, safety and reliance, and our rich operation experience. In "going out", China's companies should not only buy other people's products, but also sell ours, including ordinary items such as clothes, shoes and hats, as well as our middle-and-high-end products. There is great potential for us in this field.
第四，引導市場預期。雖然做了很多工作，但市場還是有一些不安心的地方，覺得改革措施、簡政放權、調整結構是不是今年一定能見得了效啊？再加上國外又出現 “唱空中國”的一種輿論，說中國經濟要硬著陸，甚至有些著名經濟學家也給出判斷，說今年中國經濟增幅就會落到3%。我見外賓時，也有人跟我說類似的話。我們不追求高速度，更不片面追求GDP，但是合理的增長速度是需要的，所以我們就確定了經濟增長的合理區(qū)間。實際上是要引導社會預期。什么合理區(qū)間呢？老有人追問我，說這有上限下限，這最終到底是多少啊？那就是GDP按照今年人代會所確定的，增長7.5%左右，作為我們的下限。這直接關系就業(yè)。我到一些出口企業(yè)去看，在今年一季度最困難的時候，企業(yè)告訴我，雖然現在出口訂單基本上不增長了，但是企業(yè)絕不裁員。我說謝謝你，不光是代表這些員工包括農民工謝謝你，也代表國家謝謝你，希望所有的企業(yè)都能這樣。大學畢業(yè)生是我們國家的寶貴財富。今年大學畢業(yè)生699萬，是歷年來最高的，在這樣嚴峻復雜的經濟形勢下，怎么保證這699萬人就業(yè)，我們確定了一個“大學生就業(yè)促進計劃”。就是畢業(yè)后即使一次簽約簽不成，二次簽約也簽不成，國家不給你斷線，不把你推到社會上不管了，畢業(yè)生的就業(yè)狀況學校要掌握，人力資源和社會保障部門要掌握，而且要提供培訓、提供就業(yè)指導、提供選擇機會。我們有要求，不能有零就業(yè)家庭，這方面工會系統(tǒng)也做了大量的工作。我過去在東北工作的時候，到零就業(yè)的家庭去看過，真是感到心酸哪，一個家里面幾口人待在那里，小伙子大姑娘沒有一個有工作，家庭毫無生氣，甚至沒有希望，所以我們必須要保障。所以我剛才講的穩(wěn)增長也是為了保就業(yè)，那么我們引導市場預期，確定這個合理區(qū)間，就是增長的下限7.5%左右；上限CPI，就是物價上漲不能超過3.5%左右，因為老百姓要過日子，而在我國物價統(tǒng)計方法中，33%即三分之一權重是食品。我們中低收入的群眾還相當多，光低保，城鎮(zhèn)2000多萬，農村5000多萬，占整個人口的5%，所以我們向社會發(fā)出這個信號，如果經濟運行真要滑出這個合理區(qū)間，政府就要采取有針對性的措施。但在這個合理區(qū)間內，我們還是盡可能地釋放改革的最大紅利，著力去推進改革，著力去推進結構調整，激發(fā)市場活力來培育經濟增長的內生動力。這不是說政府沒有保持宏觀經濟穩(wěn)定的責任，這個責任我們是有的，也是有能力的，我們向世界明確發(fā)出這個信號。	Fourthly, we should guide market expectations. We have done a lot of work, but worries remain in the market. Some worry that our reform measures such as efforts to streamline administration and delegate power, and economic restructuring may not pay off this year. In addition, the predictions of the "collapse of China's economy" have reemerged. Some have said that there will be a hard landing for China's economy. Even some well-known economists predicted that China's economic growth will fall to 3 percent this year. Foreign guests have said the same thing to me. Although we are not pursuing high speed growth and are not relying solely on GDP, a reasonable growth rate is still necessary. We will therefore focus on a reasonable range of economic growth, in order to guide market expectation. What is a reasonable range? I have always been asked where the bottom line and the top limit are. Our bottom line is a growth rate of about 7.5 percent, which was set at the 12th National People's Congress (NPC) this year. This figure is directly related to employment. When I visited export firms in the first quarter this year, I was told that they would not lay off employees even during the hardest periods when export orders remained stagnant. I said thank you on behalf of your employees including migrant workers and the government and I hoped all the other firms could do the same. College graduates are the treasures of our nation. The number of college graduates reached 6.99 million this year, a record high. In this complex economic environment, we have introduced the "College Graduates Employment Promotion Plan" in order to safeguard graduate employment. When a graduate fails to sign employment contracts twice in a row, the government will not stand by. Universities and human resources and social security departments should fully understand the employment status of college graduates, and should provide training, employment guidance and opportunities. We also required that there should be no "zero-employment families." The labor unions have done a lot in this regard. When I worked in northeast China, I visited families where nobody was employed. It was heartbreaking to see all the family members including young men and women unemployed and living with little hope. We must provide security for them. The purpose of maintaining reasonable economic growth rate, as I just mentioned, is to guarantee employment. So, in order to guide the market expectation, we proposed "the reasonable range", which means an economic growth rate of about 7.5 percent as the bottom line and a CPI growth of 3.5 percent at most. As food accounts for 33 percent in our price statistics, we have to make sure the price increase is affordable. There are still a lot of people on low to medium incomes. Over 20 million urban residents and more than 50 million rural residents are enrolled in low-income insurance, 5 percent of the entire population. Therefore, the message is clear, if China's economy moves out of the reasonable range, the government will have to take measures; if not, we will unleash more "reform dividends" and continue our reform to make as much progress as possible. In pushing forward reform, we should encourage economic restructuring and stimulate market vitality in order to cultivate an endogenous driving force of economic growth. This is not to say that the government has no responsibility to stabilize the macro-economy. In fact, the government is not only responsible, but also able to do so. We must make this message clear to the outside world.
最近大家都看到了，前三季度經濟形勢的數據公布了，經濟增長從二季度的7.5%提高到了三季度的7.8%，應該說是回升了。CPI有所上漲，9月當月是3.1%，但1-3季度是2.5%，在我們3.5%左右控制的范圍之內。更重要的是，前三個季度城鎮(zhèn)新增就業(yè)超過了1000萬人，城鎮(zhèn)登記失業(yè)率在4.04%。三季度工業(yè)用電量增長了9.8%，鐵路貨運量也增長了7.3%，和經濟增長是匹配的。今天我看外電分析，說中國的經濟數據看起來不錯啊。有些客觀的國外經濟學家寫文章說，中國經濟衰落的預言又一次食言了，說中國要硬著陸的人要感到遺憾了。所以說，我們整個經濟走勢穩(wěn)中向好，完成全年經濟社會發(fā)展的主要指標，是有能力也是有條件的。要說信心重要，信心從哪里來？我說最重要的信心是來自于我們偉大的工人階級，來自于在座同志們所代表的中國億萬職工的勤勞智慧。大家可能還記得，2008年國家金融危機沖擊以后，2009年中國經濟表現不俗，美國《時代》周刊封面刊登了中國工人照片，其中包括農民工。他們認為中國經濟之所以保持這樣的增長速度，是中國的工人在支撐著，主要是因為他們勤勞、勤勞、勤勞！沒有比這樣的工人更勤勞刻苦的了。我跟他們講，你們還少了一個詞，我也和你們重復三遍：智慧、智慧、智慧！	I think you are aware of the economic data released in the first three quarters of this year. The economy grew by 7.5 percent in the second quarter and 7.8 in the third quarter. In September, CPI grew to 3.1 percent but its average growth rate in the first three quarters stood at 2.5 percent, within the 3.5 percent limit. More importantly, we created more than 10 million jobs in urban areas, and the registered unemployment rate for urban residents was 4.04 percent in the first three quarters. In the third quarter, industrial electricity consumption grew by 9.8 percent, and the railway cargo volume rose by 7.3 percent, which was in line with the overall pace of economic growth. I read the foreign media today, which said that China's economic data looked upbeat. Some foreign economists wrote objectively that the "collapse of China's economy" prediction had been proven wrong once again and those who believed China's economy would have a hard landing would be disappointed. Therefore, China's economy is stable and is on the rise. We have the ability to fulfill our major social and economic development goals this year. Where does our confidence come from? I think it comes mainly from the great working class, from the diligence and wisdom of hundreds of millions of Chinese workers who all of you here represent. You may remember that in 2009, China's economy fared well after the financial crisis in 2008. Photos of Chinese workers including migrant workers appeared on the front cover of Time magazine. They believed that China's high-speed growth was supported by Chinese workers, largely because their diligence, diligence, diligence! They admitted that Chinese workers are the most diligent in the world. But I told them that they forgot another word, which I said to them three times: wisdom, wisdom, wisdom!
當然我們不光是要經濟保持平穩(wěn)運行，也要讓社會不斷進步，實際上我們在推進社會不斷進步當中，也在應對各種挑戰(zhàn)，以讓經濟能夠保持平穩(wěn)運行，包括應對自然災害方面的挑戰(zhàn)。比如說，今年發(fā)生了蘆山地震，黨中央、國務院組織各方力量，及時有力、科學有序地進行救援。我到現場去時，那兒汽車不通了，道路已經封了，但很快就有直升飛機調來，到了震中地區(qū)，鄰省一些同志已經來了，體現了一方有難、八方支援的精神，省里等方面動作之迅速也說明汶川抗震等經驗得到了發(fā)揮。在那里，我們做出個決定，救災要科學有序，由四川省為主指揮抗震救災，國務院派一個工作組在那兒，由四川省作為需方，我們是供方，他提單子，我們給條件，保證抗震救災有序進行，使死亡人數降到了最低程度。中央決定對此后類似災害，都以此機制展開。還有像H7N9禽流感，由于有了過去防非典、防甲流感的經驗，也做到了科學有序防控。	Of course, we don't just want to keep the economy stable, but also strive for social progress. In fact, we have tackled an array of challenges in the course of social progress, including natural disasters, in order to maintain economic stability. For example, after an earthquake broke out in Sichuan Province's Lushan County this year, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council galvanized efforts on all sides to provide disaster relief in a timely, effective, scientific and orderly way. When I arrived there, the road was blocked and vehicles could not get through at all. But soon helicopters arrived at the epicenter and the leadership from neighboring provinces also came, demonstrating the spirit of all sides coming to help when one is struck by disaster. The immediate response of the Sichuan Province also demonstrated that what had been learned from the Wenchuan earthquake had been applied to the full. We made a decision right on the spot: Sichuan would lead the disaster relief efforts while the State Council would assign a work group in support, which would ensure scientific and orderly disaster relief. Sichuan was the demander while we were the supplier -- Sichuan made requests and we met them. The relief work was carried out in an orderly manner and the death toll was kept at the lowest level. The central Party leadership then decided that future disaster relief work should be carried out under the same mechanism. We also controlled the H7N9 flu in a scientific and orderly manner based on our experience in combating SARS and influenza.
我們還著力解決群眾關心的問題。像大氣污染，我們已經制定了治理大氣污染行動計劃十條，希望北京3-5年內空氣質量有所改變。我們會盡最大力氣，堅決治理那些污染源，當然要有個過程。我們也加大了食品藥品安全監(jiān)管的力度。這次機構改革，專門成立了食品藥品監(jiān)管總局，過去多個部門管的，進行了整合，盡力改變九龍治水、三個和尚挑水最后又沒水吃的局面。我們還從嬰兒奶粉入手，把嬰兒奶粉當藥品管，用藥品監(jiān)管的方式來監(jiān)管嬰兒奶粉，保證奶粉安全。總之，我們既要推動經濟社會發(fā)展，還要推動經濟社會協(xié)調發(fā)展，這樣才能夠保證中國經濟長期增長、持續(xù)健康發(fā)展。	We have also spared no effort to solve problems that the people are concerned about. Take air pollution as an example. We have produced the Action Plan for Air Pollution Prevention and Control, attempting to improve Beijing's air quality in three to five years. We will make great efforts to deal with the sources of pollution, but of course it will take some time. We have also intensified our efforts to supervise drug and food safety. The China Food and Drug Administration was set up during the cabinet reshuffle earlier this year, integrating the work done by several departments in the past and rectifying previously undefined obligations and responsibilities. We also dealt with the baby milk powder issue. We supervised the way we do with medicine, to ensure its safety. We have not only encouraged economic and social development, but have also coordinated the two. Only in this way can we ensure long-term, sustainable and healthy economic growth.